The offseason is a time when many fantasy analysts do research and try to find the next big thing in fantasy. Generally speaking, each player touted as a hype prospect has good reason for showing signs of breaking out – previous season trends, new systems, untapped talent, etc. But no matter how many of these causes for a breakout we find, nothing matters until the season starts and all the pieces fall into place. While three games is a small sample size, let’s take a look at how some of the offseason breakout darlings are faring in the early going.
In this episode, Steve and Stephen discuss NFL news and notes including the injury to Dez Bryant. They then discuss fantasy match-ups to exploit going forward and talk about some low owned (under 50%) bye week replacements for your Packers and Eagles. Finally, they give a Thursday Night Football preview for Dolphins at Bengals.
Check out this episode!
Using historical data to predict how players will project each week seems like a long shot, right? Well, Week 3 proved that there may be some substance to this statistical tool. Last week, the historical evidence of how the Saints have used their tight ends against the Falcons, helped identify the potential breakout for Coby Fleener. Not only did he breakout, he was a focal point of the Saints offense.
The historical consistency for the quarterback, running back and tight end group is not very friendly for the upcoming match-ups in Week 4. The wide receiver position is much friendlier in terms of historical consistency. I have identified four wide receivers that have evident and consistent success against their opponents in week four. I break it all down for you in this article.
If there’s something strange in your neighborhood, something weird with your running backs, and it don’t look good. Who you gonna call? Ghost-Rosters! You kept Tevin Coleman on your bench, and it’s messing with your head, needed 16 from Julio, got 1.6 instead. Who you gonna call? Ghost-Rosters! I ain’t afraid of no ghost! I ain’t afraid of no ghost…
How many of us had victory all but assured if one of our players just scored, oh I don’t know, maybe 2 points? If you’re a Carson Palmer or Ryan Fitzpatrick owner, an actual ghost would have scored more points this week than those two starting QBs combined. How many of us just needed a couple more points to get the win last night only to watch Atlanta kneel out the game from the goal line with 4 downs and a minute and a half left on the clock? Ugh.
Ghosts are real, people, they are all around us, and you never know when one is going to show up to haunt your scoreboard. Just ask Odell Beckham Jr. who appeared to encounter a poltergeist this weekend. All you can do now is try to banish those good for nothing Slimers back to the waiver wire so you can call up someone who will come alive this Sunday and beyond.
So fantasy footballers, who you gonna call?
The Sunk-Cost Fallacy:
“Reasoning that further investment is warranted on the fact that the resources already invested will be lost otherwise, not taking into consideration the overall losses involved in the further investment.”
This is a philosophical concept from the business world that applies perfectly to fantasy football. Being afraid to release a player that you invested a high pick in, even when they have not returned on that investment. Sometimes you tell yourself that it’s just a bad stretch of games, that things will get better and you have to hold on. Other times you know there is no light at the end of the tunnel, but are scared that he will suddenly become fantasy relevant as soon as you hit the drop button. Either way, you are holding onto a player that is not helping your team win.
Recognizing this tendency in people will help your fantasy career. If you are able to cut-bait on a player whose name holds more value than it should, this can lead to you making key moves to help your team get to the championship. Now that’s not to say this strategy is without flaw. Like anything, there’s a risk that you could wrong. That once you bid farewell to your struggling player, he will ascend to fantasy stardom. On the other hand, you could hold on to the player for far too long, and miss out on some juicy waiver wire pickups.
However, just like a business, you want to recoup some of your investment. Before you outright drop a player, you should try to trade him. There may be someone in your league who is willing to “buy-low” on a player that they had liked before the season started. This gets harder to do with every week that the player underwhelms. Eventually you will get to a point where his value is so low that nobody will touch him. That’s when you have to cut your losses and ship him off to waivers.
Here are five players that are I feel are guys you should try to “Sell-Low” on (in standard 12 team leagues) while you still can: Continue reading Highly Drafted Players to Drop
Nothing seems to go right for the Cleveland Browns. Their last winning season was in 2007 when they went 10-6 and actually missed the playoffs. The last time they made the postseason was in 2002 but lost in the Wild Card Round to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only four of the 11 players selected in the 1st round over the past 8 years are still on the team’s roster. “Johnny Football” was a thing for about 5 minutes. With all that said, the Browns were not expected to be a good team in 2016, but possibly an exciting team in fantasy. Robert Griffin III was brought in to potentially revitalize his career. Electric receiver Corey Coleman was drafted in the first round to pair with Josh Gordon (after his suspension is up). Breakout tight end Gary Barnidge was returning to build off an unexpected 2015. As fast as the excitement built, the offense became deflated due to a barrage of injuries leaving athletic freak Terrelle Pryor Sr. as the focal point. It was rumored Sunday morning that Pryor could get some snaps at QB with rookie Cody Kessler behind center and those rumors proved to be true. What can we expect from Pryor going forward? Lets find out.
Let’s get this straight: I don’t know fantasy football. You don’t know fantasy football, none of us know fantasy football. Down is up, up is down, and match-ups that once looked like a home run have now left us sobbing on the couch. All we can do now is take the information at hand and use that to make the best informed decisions moving forward. We’re getting to that point in the season where many of those decisions may revolve around making trades with your idiot friends and members of your fantasy league which poses the ultimate question: Who should stay and who should go? Let’s take a look at some big name guys whose stock is on the rise as well as some guys who are trending in the opposite direction.
If your FanDuel lineups from week 2 avoided major injuries at the running back position, you had a great chance of cashing in. By chance, if you rostered one of Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Jonathon Stewart, Danny Woodhead or Arian Foster you were out of luck and your line-up most certainly suffered. The war of attrition that is the NFL season certainly took its toll on season long and DFS players alike, but this rash of injuries provides great value at the running back position heading into week 3. Players like Charles Sims, Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon all stand to benefit from increased workloads.
Also note, a big change has taken place place to the main slate of games this week as FanDuel has moved their main slate of games to just Sunday games moving forward, similar to DraftKings. You can find the full press release here. Unfortunately for this week, we won’t be able to play the Falcons at Saints game for this main slate, which would have provided tons of fantasy goodness, but alas, there are other match-ups to exploit and players to target for both cash games and GPPs.
Let’s get to the picks.
Week 2 was devastating for a lot of fantasy teams. The sheer volume of running back injuries is enough to make owners go crazy. Everyone and their mother has seen the endless articles about Jerick McKinnon vs. Matt Asiata or how Dwayne Washington can help you out this year. The purpose of this article isn’t to tell you who to grab on the waivers. The purpose of this article is to help you stay ahead of the curve and grab guys going into the weekend before they breakout or while they’re heading into a stretch where they can take advantage of their volume and be productive. The highest ownership on the list this week is 46.1% so you have a decent shot at grabbing these guys on waiver in many leagues. Continue reading Sunday Stash: Week 3 Edition
Yikes that was a brutal Week 2 for running backs…and their fantasy owners. Among the backs going down with an injury were Doug Martin, Danny Woodhead, Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Stewart, Ameer Abdullah and Arian Foster. Injuries are never a good thing, but they do create opportunities for other players to take more of a role in a team’s offense. And this of course, creates opportunities for fantasy owners to find the next diamond in the rough and replenish their rosters. Let’s take a look at some of the fantasy relevant injuries, who can look to benefit, and what to expect moving forward.